Tuesday, August 16, 2011

A Long and Winding Road for the GOP

By Kenneth T. Walsh

Posted: August 15, 2011

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The entry of Texas Governor Rick Perry into the Republican's presidential race, coupled with the victory of MIchele Bachmann in the Ames, Iowa straw poll and Mitt Romney's strength in New Hampshire and elsewhere, have suddenly turned the GOP campaign into a three-way race. And it's likely to stay that way for a long time.

GOP insiders say that's partly because of one factor that has been largely ignored in the analysis. It's that the caucuses and primaries held before April 1 will allot delegates proportionally, rather than winner-take-all. This system was designed by GOP leaders to prevent an untested candidate from locking up the nomination too early with a series of winner-take-all victories. But the concern among some party insiders now is that the new rules are likely to prolong the race longer than party leaders expected. At this point, it looks like no candidate is likely to dominate the process, and the outcome could be a lengthy and divisive series of battles in which the nomination fight is waged state by state well into the spring. This could result in disunity and a depletion of party resources.

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